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The April jobs report dropped this morning, and the soft landing crowd is now reaching for towels. 156,000 jobs were lost in February after a 23,000-job revision. The number of people working part-time jobs for economic reasons increased by 445,000 in a single month. Pour a drink. We're reading the labor market tea leaves through a real estate lens this week.

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Source: Zillow, Freddie Mac, CNBC, Redfin, Apartment List, CME FedWatch

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Story: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total non-farm payrolls grew to just 115,000 in April, with the unemployment rate stuck at 4.3%. The headline alone is mediocre; the footnotes are worse. February was revised down by 23,000 to a loss of 156,000 jobs. The number of people working part-time for economic reasons (code for "I want full-time hours, but my boss cut them") spiked by 445,000 in a single month to 4.9 million. Federal government employment fell by another 9,000 and is now down 348,000 jobs, or 11.5%, from its October 2024 peak. Construction, manufacturing, and professional and business services have all flatlined.

So What? Here's the trap. A weakening labor market is supposed to push the U.S. Federal Reserve toward rate cuts, which would soften mortgages. Great for refinancing. But "weakening" is also code for "your tenant's hours just got cut," and that flows directly into your rent roll. The 445,000 jump in involuntary part-time workers is the tell. Those are renters one bad month away from a payment plan request. If you operate workforce housing or class B and C multifamily, your delinquency rate is about to test you. The investor playing both sides correctly is doing two things at once: stress-testing every loan against a 5% delinquency assumption, and keeping the refinance application warm for the day rates actually break lower.

What’s Next? Watch three things over the next 30 days. First, the May jobs report on June 5. A second consecutive sub-150,000 print, plus another negative revision, and the Fed conversation flips from "if" to "when." Second, watch your own portfolio's late-pay rate against your three-month rolling average. A 50-basis-point drift up is a signal, not noise. Third, watch construction employment specifically. April showed little change after March's 26,000 gain. If May goes negative, the supply side that has been propping up new home sales since 2024 starts to unwind. Slower employment plus tighter housing supply is the cocktail that makes existing rentals more valuable, not less. Sometimes the best news for your portfolio is the headline that scares everybody else.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (aka America’s Official Mood Ring)

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Thinking about investing in Scenic City real estate? In this video, we break down the best areas to invest in Chattanooga, explain A–F class neighborhoods, and show you where investors can find strong rental opportunities for cash flow, appreciation, and long-term stability. We also cover riskier pockets to avoid so you can make smarter investment decisions in one of the South’s fastest-growing markets.

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Top Weekly Stories:

1️⃣ Housing: New listings just turned negative, falling 2.5% year-over-year for the week ending May 2 after a 1.4% drop the prior week, signaling sellers are starting to flinch as rates climb. 🪺 More

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