Rent Concessions Retreat

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Brad Cartier & The Nest
June 17, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes

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Free rent? Fuhgeddaboudit. Zillow says those winter “one month free + a puppy” promos are melting faster than a popsicle at a pool party. This, just as President Trump calls Fed Chair Powell a “numbskull” for not chilling mortgage rates. Buckle up: summer’s heating, concessions are retreating, and investors need SPF 50 for volatility.

CONCESSION STAND CLOSED

Story: Zillow’s latest readout shows 35% of May rent listings still dangled a concession, matching April’s record high for the month, but that’s a cooldown from the 41% peak in the dead of winter. Seasonality is back in the driver’s seat: with apartment construction down from last year’s 50-year high, managers in prime “lease season” no longer need to woo tenants with Peloton credits and free parking. Hot-spot metros are still dealing: Austin (63%), Charlotte (62%), Denver (61%), and Raleigh (61%) top the giveaway leaderboard, while Buffalo, New Orleans, and Providence barely crack double digits.

So What? Investors in concession-heavy metros should expect slimmer net-effective rents until new-supply absorption catches up. Value-add buyers can target markets where freebies linger; those incentives hint at soft demand and negotiable pricing. Meanwhile, owners in Buffalo or NOLA can keep the champagne on ice: minimal giveaways = pricing power. Net rent growth this summer could look firmer on paper than it does after “one month free” hits the ledger.

What’s Next? Watch concessions in Austin, Charlotte, Denver, and Raleigh through Labor Day; if they stay north of 50%, autumn rent rolls may wobble. Track the national apartment-starts data: Fewer shovels in the ground today mean stronger landlord leverage by mid-2026. Finally, watch “perks inflation”: as free months fade, look for subtler lures (smart-home gadgets, streaming subscriptions) that still chip away at NOI.

Source: Zillow

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