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The Fed just looked at June’s jobs numbers, shrugged, and said, “Rate cut? Never heard of her.” Mortgage shoppers everywhere collectively face-palmed. Welcome to the summer of Still-High-Interest, where employment sizzles and buyers fizzle.

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RATE CUT? NAH…

Story: June packed a punch—147,000 new jobs, unemployment dipping to 4.1 %, and analysts scrambling to reset their Fed-watch bingo cards. The CME FedWatch Tool now pegs odds of a July rate cut at a sad 5%, down from 19% last week. Translation: The 30-year fixed has little incentive to leave its 6.6%–6.8% comfort zone, keeping affordability about as welcoming as a bouncer with a clipboard.

So What? Despite the audible nationwide “NOOOO,” investors do receive two immediate benefits from this. First, the “lock-in” effect remains in place, trapping current owners in sub-3% loans and throttling resale inventory, which is great for rental demand and BTR occupancy. Second, flippers (and any seller with champagne dreams) must confront rate-stubborn buyers who want concessions, buydowns, or both. Expect longer days on market, sweeter seller credits, and plenty of room for creative financing.

What’s Next? Circle July 29–30 on the calendar for the Fed meeting; unless July’s CPI turns ice-cold, Powell is likely to keep wearing his “wait-and-see” hat. In the meantime, watch weekly Freddie Mac surveys for any cracks below 6.6%, a sign that lenders smell softer data ahead. Election chatter about first-time buyer credits will also intensify; if Congress starts to agree on anything (miracles do happen), entry-level demand could surge late in Q4.

Source: Realtor.com

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