Realtor.com just admitted its December forecast was wrong. And by "wrong" they mean overshot home price growth by nearly half. Every deal underwritten in the last six months just lost a chunk of its story.

Story: According to Realtor.com's midyear forecast update released July 8, home prices will now rise just 1.2% in 2026, down from the December forecast of 2.2%. Existing-home sales projections got trimmed too, from 4.13 million to 4.10 million. The report cites persistent mortgage rates in the 6% to 6.5% band, a fresh round of inflation (May print at a three-year high of 4.2%), and softer demand as the reason. First-time buyers actually rose to 35% of May purchases (up from 30%), but not enough to save the top-line growth number.

So What? The consensus is quietly capitulating on 2026. Every pro forma written in Q4 2025 assumed at least 2% price appreciation. That assumption just got cut nearly in half. For syndicators, resale exits look worse. For LPs, IRR math looks worse. For anyone underwriting new SFR acquisitions right now, the buying window Realtor.com is describing (more inventory, price cuts rarer than last year, sale-to-list at 97%) is actually favorable. This is not a bearish report. It is a "reset your expectations" report.

What’s Next? Watch three numbers between now and Q4. First, Freddie Mac's 30-year rate: any real move below 6% releases pent-up buyer demand and blows up the 1.2% figure to the upside. Second, the inflation print: another hot reading kills any Fed cut and reinforces the downgrade. Third, single-family housing starts, revised down from 1.00 million to 0.96 million. If builders keep pulling back, resale supply gets even tighter. Realtor.com moved the goalposts. Your underwriting model should move too.

Source: Realtor.com

How to Build a 5 Rental Portfolio Starting With Just 1 House

Growing from one rental to five requires a repeatable acquisition system, not just luck — and in this video, Matthew Whitaker, founder of Evernest and author of How to Rent Your Home, walks through exactly how everyday investors scale their portfolios without quitting their jobs. Most landlords stall at one property because they don't have a framework for evaluating the next deal, managing cash flow across multiple units, or knowing when to use equity vs. savings. Matthew has helped thousands of investors across 50 markets build exactly that framework, and this video breaks it down step by step.

Top Weekly Stories:

1️⃣ Housing: Redfin reports the U.S. median home-sale price hit $408,804 for the four weeks ending July 12, just $800 short of the all-time high, even as pending sales fell 2.2% week-over-week to the lowest level since the start of 2026. 🪺 More

2️⃣ Investors: Multifamily posted its strongest quarterly absorption since mid-2024 in Q2 2026, though asking rents actually dipped slightly year-over-year as record apartment deliveries continue working through the pipeline. 🪺 More

3️⃣ Mortgages: Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed climbed back to 6.49% for the week ending July 16 after briefly dipping to 6.43%, with the daily average shooting to its highest level in nearly a year on renewed inflation and rate-cut uncertainty. 🪺 More

4️⃣ Interesting Trends: Sellers outnumbered buyers nationally by 48.5% in June, with Miami leading the imbalance at 140% more sellers than buyers, followed by Nashville (129%) and Texas metros Houston, San Antonio, and Austin all above 100%. 🪺 More

5️⃣ Policy Changes: The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped to 34 in July from 36 in June, with 37% of builders now reporting price cuts and 63% offering sales incentives, the 16th consecutive month above 60%. 🪺 More

Why Boring Investors Build the Most Wealth

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