Every Zillow-scrolling BBQ this weekend was buzzing about September rate cuts. Meanwhile, one Fed president cleared her throat and said, "About that. What if we went the other way?" Grab a drink, because the rate-cut consensus just got a lot less consensus-y, and your refi spreadsheet is about to need a drink too.

Story: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack came out swinging Thursday, publicly calling for an immediate rate increase to wrestle inflation back down. This landed 48 hours after July Consumer Price Index (CPI) clocked in at 3.4%, comfortably above the Fed's 2% target, with core services and shelter still doing all the cardio. She isn't alone: three FOMC members dissented in favor of a hike at the July meeting. Fed funds futures now price a 38% probability of a September hike, up from roughly 15% just a week ago. That's a lot of quietly repriced spreadsheets.

So What? If your 2026 game plan was "refi in September and get out of the ARM," welcome to the same emotional rollercoaster as the entire bond market. Every landlord chasing a refinance, every flipper timing an exit, and every builder eyeing a construction loan just had their base case flipped like a Zillow-listed bungalow. Rates going UP from here freezes the last thawing corner of housing and torches the optimism quietly priced into home sales forecasts. Cash buyers, unhelpfully, will be insufferable at dinner parties.

What’s Next? Watch the August CPI print on September 11 and next week's Jackson Hole speeches for how many Fed governors quietly nod along with Hammack. If two more join the hike caucus, the September 17 FOMC meeting stops being a formality and starts being appointment television. Also worth watching: any hint from Chair Powell about a committee split, which he loves to bury in adverbs. Read Powell like a poet, not a banker.

Source: Reuters

How to Spot a Bad Property Manager Before You Sign (4 Red Flags)

Every bad property manager looks great on the sales call, so the real test is what happens after you sign, and there are five specific red flags that separate a manager who protects your rental from one who costs you. In this video, Matthew Whitaker, founder of Evernest and author of How to Rent Your Home, walks through the rent promise that wins business but doesn't hold up, the fees you can't see until you ask, gut-feel tenant screening, slow communication, and vacancy without urgency, plus a four-point audit if you've already signed with a company. Evernest manages 15,000 homes across 50 markets, and these are the same red flags Matthew tells owners to check before and after signing a management agreement.

Top Weekly Stories:

1️⃣ Housing: NAR reported July existing home sales fell 1.7% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06M, but the median price hit $434,100, marking the 37th straight month of year-over-year price gains. Volume down, prices up, everyone stuck. 🪺 More

2️⃣ Investors: The RCN Capital / CJ Patrick Investor Sentiment Index hit an all-time low, with 45% of single-family investors saying the market has gotten worse (survey record), just 26% saying it improved (survey low), and insurance, rates, and geopolitics leading the complaints. 🪺 More

3️⃣ Mortgages: July CPI cooled to 3.4% headline and 2.5% core (matching the slowest core pace since March 2021), but shelter accounted for two-thirds of the monthly all-items increase, quietly keeping the Fed's rate-cut clock frozen. 🪺 More

4️⃣ Interesting Trends: Zillow's June rental report showed typical U.S. asking rent at $1,965 (up 2.2% year-over-year), with nearly two in five rental listings now offering concessions, a sign multifamily is cutting deals while single-family lets renewals do the work. 🪺 More

5️⃣ Policy Changes: The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) published a Supplemental Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on August 10 to eliminate Title VI disparate impact regulations, opening a 60-day public comment period that closes October 9. 🪺 More

Struggling To Find Good Real Estate Deals? Here’s How To Find Them

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