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Check out housing’s latest magic trick…It’s simultaneously frozen and overheated (think of a microwaved Hot Pocket that’s lava on the edges but ice in the middle). Prices keep levitating, builders keep hesitating, and buyers are trapped in a “please hold” loop that would make even Comcast blush.

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HOLD

Story: April clocked the slowest existing-home sales in 16 years, while builder confidence returned to late-2023 territory. The median resale price hit an April record of $414K, up nearly 50% since 2019, and 30-year mortgage rates hover near 6.9%. Single-family permits, starts, and completions are all down year-over-year, squeezed further by a 14.5% tariff on Canadian lumber that tacks almost $11K onto each new house. With resale inventory up 20%, 34% of builders cut prices last month just to compete.

So What? This uneasy stalemate has three big takeaways. First, rental demand should stay robust because would-be buyers are stuck renewing leases (translate: good news for cash-flow hunters). Second, builders facing cost inflation and sluggish absorption may dangle discounts on quick-move-ins, creating opportunities to scoop finished inventory or bulk-buy lots at a markdown. Third, anyone underwriting ground-up projects must pad budgets: tariffs, wage pressure, and supply-chain quirks can turn a spreadsheet hero into a villain faster than you can say “change order.”

What’s Next? Eyes on three mileposts. The late-June NAHB/Wells Fargo sentiment survey will reveal whether May’s dip was a blip or the start of a trend. The Commerce Department’s summer review of lumber duties could raise (or, with enough lobbying luck, lower) tariff costs heading into Q4 builds. And Thursday, Freddie Mac publishes mortgage-rate averages; a slide toward 6% could finally unfreeze that “pent-up” demand Realtors keep promising. Until then, expect buyers, sellers, and builders to make like Braveheart and hold.

Source: NPR

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