The headline says housing starts roared back 10.8% in March. The headline is lying to you. Buried two paragraphs deeper is the number that actually matters, and it just hit a 12-month low. Pour the coffee. We're reading between the lines this week.

Story: The U.S. Census Bureau dropped its March New Residential Construction report on April 29. Housing starts jumped 10.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.5 million, the kind of number that gets cable news excited. But starts measure shovels already in the ground from deals signed months ago. The forward-looking number is permits, and permits cratered 10.8% to 1.37 million, the lowest level in a full year. Single-family permits dropped 3.8% to 895,000, now 7.4% below March 2025. In other words: builders finished what they started, then quietly refused to start anything new.

So What? Permits are the leading indicator. Starts are the rear-view mirror. When permits fall this hard, you're looking at six to twelve months of softer new-home supply hitting the market. For investors holding existing rentals or homes for sale, that's a tailwind: less competition, firmer pricing power on the resale side. For anyone underwriting new construction, it's a flashing dashboard light. Builders aren't pulling permits because they're staring at a 9.7-month supply of new homes already sitting on lots and asking themselves a very simple question: who exactly is buying these?

What’s Next? Watch the April permit number, due May 21. Two consecutive monthly drops would confirm the trend and likely force builder concessions to escalate again. Watch single-family starts specifically: if those follow permits down next month, the supply tap is officially closing. The silver lining for landlords and small investors: every permit not pulled today is a renter not converting to a buyer in twelve months. Tighter new supply plus stretched affordability equals stickier tenants. Sometimes the best thing for your rental portfolio is the deal a builder didn't do.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Stop Wasting Money on These Rental Property Renovations...

In this video, Hunter Terryn breaks down which rental property renovations actually increase rent, reduce vacancy, and improve ROI. He takes about which upgrades are worth the investment, what renovations landlords should avoid, and how to make smarter decisions that maximize your rental property’s cash flow.

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1️⃣ Housing: The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Composite rose just 0.9% year-over-year in February, down from 1.2% the prior month, with Denver leading the decline at minus 2.2%. 🪺 More

2️⃣ Rentals: The Apartments.com multifamily report shows San Francisco leading annual rent growth at plus 7.3% while Austin sits at minus 4.1%, the widest top-to-bottom market spread since 2020. 🪺 More

3️⃣ Mortgages: The Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage ticked up to 6.30% on April 30 after three weeks of declines, but purchase applications are still running 20% above a year ago. 🪺 More

4️⃣ Interesting Trends: The national multifamily vacancy rate dropped to 7.2% in April, the first decrease in over four years, hinting the supply glut may finally be peaking. 🪺 More

5️⃣ Policy Changes: 76 House members signed a bipartisan letter on April 22 demanding the build-to-rent sell rule be removed from the Renewing Opportunity in the American Dream (ROAD) to Housing Act, citing 72,000 units per year at risk per Urban Institute analysis. 🪺 More

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