The St. Louis Fed just confirmed what every investor already feels in their bones: America forgot how to build houses. America has been systematically underbuilding homes for decades, piling up a shortfall of 3 to 5 million units since 2008 alone. Homeowner vacancy just hit the lowest level ever recorded. We're building 35% fewer homes per capita than the postwar average. And somehow, the policy response is to make it harder to build more.

Story: The St. Louis Fed published a sweeping analysis this week titled "America Underbuilt Inc." and it reads less like an economics paper and more like an autopsy of a construction industry that never recovered from 2008. Here are the numbers. Building permits per capita peaked at 10.6 per 1,000 people in 1972, when baby boomers were forming households and suburban land was cheap. By 2005, that had already slipped to 7.3. Then came the crash: permits collapsed 74% to just 1.9 per 1,000 by 2009. The recovery? Barely qualifies. In 2024, permits per capita sit at 4.3 per 1,000 -- still 35% below the 1960-2000 average of 6.6 and a full 59% below the 1972 peak. Single-family permits are running at just 2.9 per 1,000 against a historical average of 4.1. Multifamily has partially filled the gap, climbing from 0.4 per 1,000 in 2011 to 1.3 in 2024, but it's nowhere near enough to close the deficit. The result is a cumulative housing shortfall that multiple studies now peg at 3 to 5 million units since 2008. Homeowner vacancy has fallen to 0.95%, the lowest on record. Rental vacancy sits at 6.8%, below 1960s levels.

So What? If you own rental property, this study is the strongest validation of the long-term thesis you'll find anywhere, and it's coming from the Fed itself, not a trade group with an agenda. Start with the vacancy data. Homeowner vacancy below 1% means there is virtually no slack in the ownership market. Every household that can't buy becomes a renter by default. Rental vacancy at 6.8% (below 1960s norms) means the rental market is tight too, and getting tighter as the construction pipeline fails to keep pace with household formation. That's structural demand for your units, not cyclical. The 3-to-5-million-unit shortfall also acts as a floor under asset values. Even if mortgage rates stay elevated and price growth slows (and it has… home price appreciation dropped to just 0.4% nationally in March), the shortage prevents a meaningful price correction. There simply aren't enough homes for prices to fall far. For investors running acquisition models, the question isn't whether prices will crash, it's whether you can find anything to buy.

What’s Next? Three things to watch. First, the April housing starts report (due mid-May). The Fed study establishes the baseline: 4.3 permits per 1,000 is structurally insufficient. Any decline from current levels (especially single-family starts, already running at 2.9 per 1,000 versus a 4.1 historical average) signals the shortage is actively deepening, not just persisting. Second, watch the ROAD to Housing Act reconciliation when the House returns April 14. The bill includes zoning reform incentives, manufactured housing modernization, and permitting streamlines that directly address the supply barriers the Fed identified. But it also includes the BTR forced-sale provision that's already freezing capital. Third, keep an eye on construction labor data. The Fed study identifies workforce attrition as a core constraint, and the latest numbers aren't encouraging: residential construction payrolls dropped by 11,000 jobs in December. If the industry can't attract workers, no amount of zoning reform or permitting speed will close a 5-million-unit gap.

Source: FED

5 Reasons Your Rental Property Isn’t Renting (And How to Fix It)

If your rental property isn’t getting calls, showings, or applications, there’s a reason, and it’s usually something you can fix. In this video, we break down the 5 biggest reasons your rental isn’t leasing, including pricing mistakes, poor marketing, and slow response times, plus exactly how to fix each one. Whether you’re a new or experienced real estate investor, these tips will help you reduce vacancy, attract better tenants, and rent your property faster!

Top Weekly Stories:

1️⃣ Housing: New listings dropped 10.0% YoY for the week ending April 4 (the steepest weekly decline since January) as Easter weekend and a renewed mortgage rate shock kept sellers sidelined during what should have been peak spring ramp-up. 🪺 More

2️⃣ Investors: 74% of global commercial real estate investors plan to buy more assets in 2026 than last year, with residential the most sought-after category in North America and reduced new supply pipelines cited as a key tailwind. 🪺 More

3️⃣ Mortgages: The 30-year fixed rate eased to 6.37% (Freddie Mac, April 10), ending a five-week climb, but remains well above the sub-6% lows seen in February; and the Fed is expected to hold rates steady at its April 28-29 meeting. 🪺 More

4️⃣ Interesting Trends: ATTOM's 2025 Property Tax Analysis shows the average single-family property tax bill rose 3% to $4,427, with effective tax rates climbing to 0.9%, the highest since 2020, even as home values declined 1.7%, hitting investors' NOI from both directions. 🪺 More

5️⃣ Policy Changes: The House returns April 14 to take up the ROAD to Housing Act, with John Burns Research reporting that the Senate's seven-year BTR forced-sale provision has already frozen capital and halted new development; and some capital "will not return even if the bill is altered." 🪺 More

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